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raises crucial for sustainable economic development against the backdrop of
energy saving national economy depends on energy imports, on the one hand, and rising prices for these
resources. The solution to this problem is not only with ensuring energy security, but also with the level of
development of regions and the quality of life of its population
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[1]
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Forecasting of petroleum consumption in Ukraine today is an extremely important issue of strategic
importance since conducted through analysis and building predictive models will be possible to develop
guidelines for the efficient production and consumption across Ukraine as a whole.
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The
said research leads scientists to balance the energy balance of Ukraine, which determined the relevance of the
work. In the traditional understanding of energy balance is the ratio between the extraction (production) and
consumption of different types of energy resources
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At the heart of the development of fuel and energy balance is a set of strategic statements of economic
development, the definition of forecast volumes of energy consumption, based on adopted policies to increase
energy efficiency, the development of fuel and energy complex and evaluating opportunities extraction and
production of fuel and ener
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, the definition of forecast volumes of energy consumption, based on adopted policies to increase
energy efficiency, the development of fuel and energy complex and evaluating opportunities extraction and
production of fuel and energy, as well as the formation of areas of importexporting policy and determine the
volume of purchase and sale of energy
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One of the mathematical methods of forecasting is group method of data handling, which allows you to
build adequate predictive models of energy consumption in the system of Ukraine’s energy balance [4].
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One of the mathematical methods of forecasting is group method of data handling, which allows you to
build adequate predictive models of energy consumption in the system of Ukraine’s energy balance
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By the use of a group method of data handling and by using modern software were built predictive models
of petroleum consumption in the system of Ukraine’s energy balance:
1. Predictive system model, 2 lags:
Y(1)= 2.2580 + 0, 7135*Y1(–1) – 0, 0.3915*Y1(–2) + 0, 1544*Y3(–1)
Y(2)= 11.0662 + 0, 6253*Y2(–1) + 0, 8652*Y2(–2) – 1.0759*Y3(–2) (1)
Y(3)= 6.2
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Using group
method of data handling to build petroleum consumption forecasting scenarios enabled to view advanced options
for the future development of the sector of the petroleum industry in Ukraine for the next 5 years and made it
possible to see clearly at that scenario can develop petroleum industry in Ukraine and were predicted important
key indicators
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Conclusion. Through analysis of the dynamics of petroleum consumption in Ukraine and analysis of
important indicators such as: petroleum production, total, mln t; petroleum consumption, with export processing,
total, mln t; petroleum imports, total, mln t – prediction models were built in the sphere of petroleum industry by
using the group method of data handling for the
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