The 15 references with contexts in paper Tara M. Sinclair (2012) “Characteristics and Implications of Chinese Macroeconomic Data Revisions” / RePEc:gwi:wpaper:2012-09

5
Chow, G. 2006. “Are Chinese Official Statistics Reliable?” CESifo Economic Studies, Vol.52 2/2006, 396-414.
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=35633
    Prefix
    Like the U.S., it appears the Chinese official data can serve as “a reliable guide” to the level and growth pattern of GDP (Lequiller and Blades, 2007) and should be the “first port of call” (Scheibe, 2003). Alternative data resources have not proved to be more precise
    Exact
    (Holz 2006, Chow 2006).
    Suffix
    Furthermore, Klein and Ozmucur (2003) also found, based on principal components analysis, that the official real GDP estimates for China appear to be consistent with a set of indicators that captures the Chinese economy more broadly.

6
Croushore, D. 2011. "Frontiers of Real-Time Data Analysis," Journal of Economic Literature. 49(1): 72–100.
Total in-text references: 4
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=2067
    Prefix
    All remaining errors are the responsibility of the author. I. Introduction Traditional macroeconomic analysis assumes data revisions are small and random and thus have no effect on economic modeling, policy, or forecasting
    Exact
    (Croushore, 2011).
    Suffix
    Recent studies of U.S. macroeconomic data, however, suggest that revisions may be much more important than previously assumed (e.g. Aruoba, 2008; Croushore, 2008 and 2011; Dynan and Elmendorf, 2001; Kennedy, 1990; Sinclair and Stekler, 2012; Swanson and van Dijk, 2006).

  2. In-text reference with the coordinate start=6202
    Prefix
    Given the growing importance of the Chinese macroeconomy for global business, this paper fills a gap in the literature by providing a careful examination of China’s macroeconomic data revisions. The methodology follows the analysis of revisions previously applied to U.S. data (see
    Exact
    Croushore, 2011,
    Suffix
    for a recent survey). 3 Two exceptions are Wu (2007) and Holz (2008) who both examine the impact of the first economic census, conducted in 2004, on the Chinese GDP data.

  3. In-text reference with the coordinate start=29183
    Prefix
    The state of the economy likely was not in the information set at the time of the initial estimates, but it has become common for researchers to consider if the revisions of macroeconomic data series are different in recessions as compared to expansions (see
    Exact
    Croushore, 2011, and
    Suffix
    Sinclair and Stekler, 2012, for examples). Unlike the U.S., China does not have any negative growth rate observations in this sample that would match the typical description of a recession.

  4. In-text reference with the coordinate start=34935
    Prefix
    Conclusions Chinese macroeconomic data generally fail Aruoba’s (2008) tests for well-behaved data revisions. The problems, however, are not at all unique for China, since even U.S. data fail most of Aruoba’s tests. Therefore, as argued by
    Exact
    Croushore (2011),
    Suffix
    it is not necessarily an indictment of the statistical authorities that the revisions are not well-behaved, but rather a call for further research to improve data gathering processes for all countries.

7
Croushore, D. 2008. "Revisions To PCE Inflation Measures: Implications for Monetary Policy" Philadelphia Fed working paper 08-8.
Total in-text references: 2
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=2250
    Prefix
    Introduction Traditional macroeconomic analysis assumes data revisions are small and random and thus have no effect on economic modeling, policy, or forecasting (Croushore, 2011). Recent studies of U.S. macroeconomic data, however, suggest that revisions may be much more important than previously assumed (e.g. Aruoba, 2008;
    Exact
    Croushore, 2008 and
    Suffix
    2011; Dynan and Elmendorf, 2001; Kennedy, 1990; Sinclair and Stekler, 2012; Swanson and van Dijk, 2006). The recent global dependence on the macroeconomic performance of China, 1 as well as concerns about the quality of the data being released by Chinese statistical agencies,2 suggest that a thorough study of the macroeconomic data revisions for China is an impo

  2. In-text reference with the coordinate start=5351
    Prefix
    In addition, it has been shown that for some U.S. macroeconomic data, large revisions are more likely in recessions than in expansions (Dynan and Elmendorf, 2001; Swanson and van Dijk, 2006). Furthermore, biases in data estimation have been identified for a number of U.S. macroeconomic series (Kennedy, 1990;
    Exact
    Croushore, 2008;
    Suffix
    Sinclair and Stekler, 2012).4 This research suggests that even the U.S. macroeconomic data experience substantial revision and bias, therefore the presence of revisions and biases in Chinese data would not be in itself evidence of lower data quality.

10
Heston, A. 2001. “Treatment of China in PWT 6” http://pwt.econ.upenn.edu/Documentation/China.pdf
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=3328
    Prefix
    The Economist, 2008; Holz, 2003 and 2006; Huang, 2011; Keidel, 2001 and 2007; Maddison, 1998 and 2006; Orlik, 2012; Rawski, 1976 and 2001; Rawski and Xiao, 2001; Ren, 2002; Wu, 2000; Xu, 2002; Young, 2003). For example,
    Exact
    Heston (2001,
    Suffix
    pg. 3) claims that there are “winds of falsification” that surround the Chinese macroeconomic data, particularly in the late-1990s. Although there has been substantial research on the accuracy of Chinese macroeconomic data generally, there has been little analysis of the revisions of the Chinese data 1 For example, see the N

12
Holz, C. 2003. “’Fast, Clear and Accurate:’ How Reliable Are Chinese Output and Economic Growth Statistics,” The China Quarterly, 173: 122-163.
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=3121
    Prefix
    However, the quality of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China’s statistical authority, has regularly been questioned by both the media and researchers (e.g. The Economist, 2008;
    Exact
    Holz, 2003 and 2006; Huang, 2011
    Suffix
    ; Keidel, 2001 and 2007; Maddison, 1998 and 2006; Orlik, 2012; Rawski, 1976 and 2001; Rawski and Xiao, 2001; Ren, 2002; Wu, 2000; Xu, 2002; Young, 2003). For example, Heston (2001, pg. 3) claims that there are “winds of falsification” that surround the Chinese macroeconomic data, particularly in the late-1990s.

14
Holz, C. 2006. "China’s Reform Period Economic Growth: How Reliable Are Angus Maddison’s Estimates? Response to Angus Maddison’s Reply." Review of Income and Wealth, 52(3): 471-5.
Total in-text references: 4
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=6314
    Prefix
    The methodology follows the analysis of revisions previously applied to U.S. data (see Croushore, 2011, for a recent survey). 3 Two exceptions are
    Exact
    Wu (2007) and Holz (2008)
    Suffix
    who both examine the impact of the first economic census, conducted in 2004, on the Chinese GDP data. Wu (2007) concludes that the 2006 benchmark revised GDP estimates based on the economic census are “not less questionable” than the data available before the census (pg. 2).

  2. In-text reference with the coordinate start=6648
    Prefix
    3 Two exceptions are Wu (2007) and Holz (2008) who both examine the impact of the first economic census, conducted in 2004, on the Chinese GDP data. Wu (2007) concludes that the 2006 benchmark revised GDP estimates based on the economic census are “not less questionable” than the data available before the census (pg. 2).
    Exact
    Holz (2008)
    Suffix
    concludes that the benchmark revision “implies that Chinese statistics have to be taken with a rock of salt” (Holz’s italics, pg. 163). 4 A longstanding concern about data revisions is their impact on forecasts and forecast evaluation, for example see Stekler (1967), Joutz and Stekler (1998), Croushore and Stark (2002). 2 Furthermore, a comparison between revisions in China with those i

  3. In-text reference with the coordinate start=9431
    Prefix
    the estimates of annual GDP printed in the official yearbooks are made separately from the quarterly estimates (Lequiller and Blades, 2007). 7 Further detail on the NBS definitions of the industries is available on their website: http://www.stats.gov.cn/english/classificationsmethods/definitions/t20020419_402787584.htm 3 approach
    Exact
    (Holz, 2008),
    Suffix
    unlike the U.S. that relies primarily on the expenditure approach to calculating GDP. The production approach is also considered to be the most reliable estimate for China (Lequiller and Blades, 2007).

  4. In-text reference with the coordinate start=20467
    Prefix
    For the tertiary sector, however, there were never any negative revisions as reported in Tables 5 and 6. This may be in part due to the shorter sample for the tertiary sector as compared, in particular, to GNP, but it is also consistent with the discussion in
    Exact
    Holz (2008)
    Suffix
    that the NBS had a sense that it was under reporting tertiary sector value added. 8 c. Comparison with U.S. Data To give some context for interpreting the size of the Chinese revisions, Tables 7 and 8 provide descriptive statistics for what is generally considered to be high-quality data, i.e.

15
Holz, C. 2008. “China’s 2004 Economic Census and 2006 Benchmark Revision of GDP Statistics: More Questions than Answers?” The China Quarterly, 193: 150-163.
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=3121
    Prefix
    However, the quality of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China’s statistical authority, has regularly been questioned by both the media and researchers (e.g. The Economist, 2008;
    Exact
    Holz, 2003 and 2006; Huang, 2011
    Suffix
    ; Keidel, 2001 and 2007; Maddison, 1998 and 2006; Orlik, 2012; Rawski, 1976 and 2001; Rawski and Xiao, 2001; Ren, 2002; Wu, 2000; Xu, 2002; Young, 2003). For example, Heston (2001, pg. 3) claims that there are “winds of falsification” that surround the Chinese macroeconomic data, particularly in the late-1990s.

16
Huang, Y., 2011. “Misinterpreting China’s Economy” Wall Street Journal, August 25, 2011.
Total in-text references: 3
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=4255
    Prefix
    Justin Lin, Chief Economist and Senior Vice President of the World Bank, where he claims that “growth in China has been a driving force for the recovery from the global crisis since 2009,” and “in the decade beginning in 2000, China became the top contributor to the growth of global GDP.” 2 For a recent discussion of the literature on the quality of Chinese macro data, see Appendix 1-1 from
    Exact
    Jia (2011)
    Suffix
    as well as the references discussed further below. 1 as released by the NBS. The small amount of evaluation of past macroeconomic data revisions for China has been used to argue that large data revisions suggest poor data quality for China. 3 In contrast with Chinese data, even early releases of U.

  2. In-text reference with the coordinate start=29474
    Prefix
    Unlike the U.S., China does not have any negative growth rate observations in this sample that would match the typical description of a recession. China has, however, experienced “growth slowdowns.” Following
    Exact
    Jia (2011),
    Suffix
    we use the following dates for the slowdowns: 1980, 1984, 1989, 1996-1998 and 2008. We then apply a methodology similar to Sinclair et al (2010) and estimate the following regression: 12 revisiont = α + βslowdownt + et (2) where slowdown is an indicator variable that takes the value 1 in the slowdown years as listed above, and 0 otherwise.

  3. In-text reference with the coordinate start=35929
    Prefix
    Furthermore, Klein and Ozmucur (2003) also found, based on principal components analysis, that the official real GDP estimates for China appear to be consistent with a set of indicators that captures the Chinese economy more broadly.
    Exact
    Jia (2011)
    Suffix
    does not find evidence of any measurement errors or irregularity in the Chinese real GDP data. Curtis and Mark (2010) also find that the official Chinese macro data appear consistent with economic 15 theory.

24
Lin, Justin Yifu. 2011. “China and the Global Economy” Luncheon Address at the 2011 Asia Economic Policy Conference at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco. Transcript available at: http://www.frbsf.org/economics/conferences/aepc/2011/volume/Lin.pdf
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=3185
    Prefix
    However, the quality of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China’s statistical authority, has regularly been questioned by both the media and researchers (e.g. The Economist, 2008; Holz, 2003 and 2006; Huang, 2011; Keidel, 2001 and 2007;
    Exact
    Maddison, 1998 and 2006; Orlik, 2012; Rawski, 1976
    Suffix
    and 2001; Rawski and Xiao, 2001; Ren, 2002; Wu, 2000; Xu, 2002; Young, 2003). For example, Heston (2001, pg. 3) claims that there are “winds of falsification” that surround the Chinese macroeconomic data, particularly in the late-1990s.

25
Maddison, A. 1998. Chinese Economic Performance in the Long Run. Paris: Development Centre of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=3185
    Prefix
    However, the quality of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China’s statistical authority, has regularly been questioned by both the media and researchers (e.g. The Economist, 2008; Holz, 2003 and 2006; Huang, 2011; Keidel, 2001 and 2007;
    Exact
    Maddison, 1998 and 2006; Orlik, 2012; Rawski, 1976
    Suffix
    and 2001; Rawski and Xiao, 2001; Ren, 2002; Wu, 2000; Xu, 2002; Young, 2003). For example, Heston (2001, pg. 3) claims that there are “winds of falsification” that surround the Chinese macroeconomic data, particularly in the late-1990s.

31
Rawski T. G and W. Xiao, 2001 “RoundTable on Chinese Economic Statistics Introduction” China Economic Review, 12(2001) 298-302.
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=35553
    Prefix
    Like the U.S., it appears the Chinese official data can serve as “a reliable guide” to the level and growth pattern of GDP (Lequiller and Blades, 2007) and should be the “first port of call”
    Exact
    (Scheibe, 2003).
    Suffix
    Alternative data resources have not proved to be more precise (Holz 2006, Chow 2006). Furthermore, Klein and Ozmucur (2003) also found, based on principal components analysis, that the official real GDP estimates for China appear to be consistent with a set of indicators that captures the Chinese economy more broadly.

34
Sinclair, T. M. and H.O. Stekler, 2012. “Examining the quality of early GDP component estimates,” International Journal of Forecasting, forthcoming.
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=6913
    Prefix
    Holz (2008) concludes that the benchmark revision “implies that Chinese statistics have to be taken with a rock of salt” (Holz’s italics, pg. 163). 4 A longstanding concern about data revisions is their impact on forecasts and forecast evaluation, for example see
    Exact
    Stekler (1967),
    Suffix
    Joutz and Stekler (1998), Croushore and Stark (2002). 2 Furthermore, a comparison between revisions in China with those in the U.S. will give a relative measure of the performance of China’s statistical authority as compared to what is typically considered the “gold standard” in data production.

36
Stekler, H. O. 1967. “Data revisions and economic forecasting.” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 62, 470–483.
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=3280
    Prefix
    However, the quality of data released by the National Bureau of Statistics of China (NBS), China’s statistical authority, has regularly been questioned by both the media and researchers (e.g. The Economist, 2008; Holz, 2003 and 2006; Huang, 2011; Keidel, 2001 and 2007; Maddison, 1998 and 2006; Orlik, 2012; Rawski, 1976 and 2001; Rawski and Xiao, 2001; Ren, 2002;
    Exact
    Wu, 2000;
    Suffix
    Xu, 2002; Young, 2003). For example, Heston (2001, pg. 3) claims that there are “winds of falsification” that surround the Chinese macroeconomic data, particularly in the late-1990s. Although there has been substantial research on the accuracy of Chinese macroeconomic data generally, there has been little analysis of the revisions of the Chinese data

37
Swanson, N. R. and D. van Dijk. 2006. "Are Reporting Agencies Getting It Right? Data Rationality and Business Cycle Asymmetry. " Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 24 (January 2006), pp. 24-42.
Total in-text references: 2
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=6314
    Prefix
    The methodology follows the analysis of revisions previously applied to U.S. data (see Croushore, 2011, for a recent survey). 3 Two exceptions are
    Exact
    Wu (2007) and Holz (2008)
    Suffix
    who both examine the impact of the first economic census, conducted in 2004, on the Chinese GDP data. Wu (2007) concludes that the 2006 benchmark revised GDP estimates based on the economic census are “not less questionable” than the data available before the census (pg. 2).

  2. In-text reference with the coordinate start=6465
    Prefix
    The methodology follows the analysis of revisions previously applied to U.S. data (see Croushore, 2011, for a recent survey). 3 Two exceptions are Wu (2007) and Holz (2008) who both examine the impact of the first economic census, conducted in 2004, on the Chinese GDP data.
    Exact
    Wu (2007)
    Suffix
    concludes that the 2006 benchmark revised GDP estimates based on the economic census are “not less questionable” than the data available before the census (pg. 2). Holz (2008) concludes that the benchmark revision “implies that Chinese statistics have to be taken with a rock of salt” (Holz’s italics, pg. 163). 4 A longstanding concern about data revisions is their impact on forecasts

39
Wu, H. X. 2007. “The Chinese GDP Growth Rate Puzzle: How Fast Has the Chinese Economy Grown?” Asian Economic Papers 6(1): 1-23.
Total in-text references: 1
  1. In-text reference with the coordinate start=3300
    Prefix
    The Economist, 2008; Holz, 2003 and 2006; Huang, 2011; Keidel, 2001 and 2007; Maddison, 1998 and 2006; Orlik, 2012; Rawski, 1976 and 2001; Rawski and Xiao, 2001; Ren, 2002; Wu, 2000; Xu, 2002;
    Exact
    Young, 2003).
    Suffix
    For example, Heston (2001, pg. 3) claims that there are “winds of falsification” that surround the Chinese macroeconomic data, particularly in the late-1990s. Although there has been substantial research on the accuracy of Chinese macroeconomic data generally, there has been little analysis of the revisions of the Chinese data 1