The 16 reference contexts in paper John Barkoulas, Christopher F. Baum (1996) “Time-Varying Risk Premia in the Foreign Currency Futures Basis” / RePEc:boc:bocoec:281

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    These correlations cannot be attributed to the expected spot price change component of the currency futures basis, thus establishing the presence of a timevarying risk premium component in the currency futures basis. I. Introduction The presence of a time-varying risk premium (TVRP) was confirmed in a variety of futures markets for commodities by
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    Bailey and Chan (1993),
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    who found that a small number of macroeconomic risk factors from equities and bond markets are meaningfully related to futures basis movements. Hodrick and Srivastava (1987), Bessembinder and Chan (1992), and McCurdy and Morgan (1992) have established the presence of risk premia in currency futures pricing, while Hsieh (1993) found evidence to the contrary.
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    Introduction The presence of a time-varying risk premium (TVRP) was confirmed in a variety of futures markets for commodities by Bailey and Chan (1993), who found that a small number of macroeconomic risk factors from equities and bond markets are meaningfully related to futures basis movements.
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    Hodrick and Srivastava (1987), Bessembinder and Chan (1992), and McCurdy and Morgan (1992)
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    have established the presence of risk premia in currency futures pricing, while Hsieh (1993) found evidence to the contrary. Contributing to this literature, this paper follows the approach of Bailey and Chan and investigates the presence of risk premia in the currency futures basis in two steps.
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    in a variety of futures markets for commodities by Bailey and Chan (1993), who found that a small number of macroeconomic risk factors from equities and bond markets are meaningfully related to futures basis movements. Hodrick and Srivastava (1987), Bessembinder and Chan (1992), and McCurdy and Morgan (1992) have established the presence of risk premia in currency futures pricing, while
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    Hsieh (1993)
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    found evidence to the contrary. Contributing to this literature, this paper follows the approach of Bailey and Chan and investigates the presence of risk premia in the currency futures basis in two steps.
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    When major foreign currencies are considered, the covered interest parity (CIP) relation is presumed to hold so as to preclude riskless arbitrage opportunities. The CIP relationship is reasonably well supported by the data
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    (Frenkel and Levich (1975, 1977), Taylor (1987, 1989), Frankel (1991)).
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    Under the CIP condition, the foreign currency futures basis is necessarily determined by the relative interest rates in domestic and foreign markets, with observed discrepancies attributed to transactions costs and errors in measurement.1 The CIP condition may be stated as Ft−St=Rt−Rt*,(1) where tF is the log of the futures price for delivery at time t+1, as observed at time t, tS is the log of th
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    The decomposition in (2) is then applied to determine to what degree the observed relationship reflects the influence of expectational errors versus that of risk premia. The identification of common factors which might be expected to influence the workings of currency markets is based on recent findings by
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    Bailey and Chan (1993),
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    who associated macroeconomic risks common to all asset markets to variations in the basis of twenty-two physical commodities. They found that after accounting for the effect of interest rates, common basis variations were correlated with observed proxies for systematic risk in the stock and bond markets.
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    Their bond market variables are two term-structure factors, a default premium and a term premium. The rationale for including the above variables in the futures basis equation derives from the studies by
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    Keim and Stambaugh (1986), Fama and French (1988a,
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    b, 1993) and Chen (1991) which have shown that the variables in question possess significant forecast power for equity and bond returns. More specifically, these variables are negatively related to business conditions and positively related to expected returns in the equity and bond markets.
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    Their bond market variables are two term-structure factors, a default premium and a term premium. The rationale for including the above variables in the futures basis equation derives from the studies by Keim and Stambaugh (1986), Fama and French (1988a, b, 1993) and
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    Chen (1991)
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    which have shown that the variables in question possess significant forecast power for equity and bond returns. More specifically, these variables are negatively related to business conditions and positively related to expected returns in the equity and bond markets.
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    Figure 2 plots the correlograms for up to forty-eighth order serial correlation in the currency futures basis and indicates that the autocorrelation function is very similar across currency futures basis. Formal evidence of serial dependence in the basis series is presented in Table II. The Box-Pierce test, adjusted for the presence of conditional heteroscedasticity
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    (Diebold, 1986),
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    indicates substantial serial correlation in all basis series. Also, there is evidence of nonlinear dependence in the data as manifested by the significant test statistics for Engle's (1982) test for autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (ARCH).
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    Low-frequency properties of the currency basis series are rigorously investigated since the regression methods used later assume stationarity of the data. Two unit root tests are utilized: the Phillips-Perron test (PP)
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    (Phillips (1987),
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    Phillips and Perron (1986)), and the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shinn test (KPSS) (Kwiatkowski et al. (1992)). In contrast to the PP test (as well as other standard unit root tests) in which the null hypothesis is nonstationarity (existence of a unit root), the KPSS test assumes stationarity under the null.
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    14586
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    Low-frequency properties of the currency basis series are rigorously investigated since the regression methods used later assume stationarity of the data. Two unit root tests are utilized: the Phillips-Perron test (PP) (Phillips (1987), Phillips and Perron (1986)), and the Kwiatkowski-Phillips-Schmidt-Shinn test (KPSS)
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    (Kwiatkowski et al. (1992)).
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    In contrast to the PP test (as well as other standard unit root tests) in which the null hypothesis is nonstationarity (existence of a unit root), the KPSS test assumes stationarity under the null.
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    It must be noted, however, that the PP test has low power against the alternative of integration order slightly less than one especially in small samples as is the case here. Although it is difficult to make reliable inferences about the stationarity of the stock market variable, it is assumed stationary for purposes of analysis.
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    Keim and Stambaugh (1986)
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    assumed stationarity for DY for the same reasons. Finally, the bond market variables DEF and TERM appear to be stationary since the PP test strongly rejects the unit-root null while the KPSS test fails to reject the null hypothesis of stationarity.
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    The stock market variable is the dividend yield, DY, and the bond market variables are the bond default spread, DEF, and term spread, TERM. The argument for including risk proxies for only the U.S. economy is based on evidence by
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    Harvey and Huang (1991) and Bollerslev and Engle (1993)
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    that U.S. macroeconomic news dominates the effects of news in European markets for U.S.European rates. The following ARMAX-GARCH(1, 1) model is estimated for the futures basis for each currency: 100⋅ i,t F− i,t S    Si,t=i0α+t−1i1αDY+i2αt−1DEF+i3αt−1TERM+i,tε εi,t=βiL()i,tε+γiL()i,tu, βiL()=ilβ l=1 p ∑lL,γiL()=ilγ l=1 q ∑lL(6) Vari,tutΩ()≡i,t2σ=iω+iiδi,t−12u+iiςi,t−12σ where L is
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    The specific source of risk (stock versus bond market) matters, with the relationship being positive (negative) for the stock (bond) market risk factors. This differential response of currency futures basis to stock and bond market risk factors awaits explanation. These results contrast with those in
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    Bailey and Chan (1993),
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    which suggest a uniformly positive association of futures basis for commodities to stock and bond market risk factors. However, the results resemble those in Bessembinder and Chan (1992), who found that currency futures returns were related positively to the dividend yield and negatively to the bond spread (except for the JY).
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    These results contrast with those in Bailey and Chan (1993), which suggest a uniformly positive association of futures basis for commodities to stock and bond market risk factors. However, the results resemble those in
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    Bessembinder and Chan (1992),
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    who found that currency futures returns were related positively to the dividend yield and negatively to the bond spread (except for the JY). The estimated models for the futures basis across currencies appear to be properly specified on the basis of residual diagnostic tests.
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    Given the presence of IGARCH in the spot and futures currency rates established in previous studies, this result indicates that the spot and futures rates for these four currencies are copersistent, in the sense of
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    Bollerslev and Engle (1993),
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    with copersistence vector (1, -1).8 For the futures basis for these currencies shocks to volatility have a finite duration and the unconditional variance is finite. Risk Premia versus Spot Forecast Error Does the importance of equity and bond market factors in explaining common variation in currency futures basis necessarily substantiate the presence of a time-varying risk premium?
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    The factors in question relate to the currency futures basis through the expected time-varying risk premium component of the basis as opposed to the expected spot forecast error component. These results on the currency futures basis are thus consistent with the evidence provided by
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    Hodrick and Srivastava (1987), Bessembinder and Chan (1992), and McCurdy and Morgan (1992)
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    regarding the presence of risk premia in currency futures pricing. V. Conclusions This paper establishes the existence of time-varying risk premia in the currency futures basis and demonstrates that these risk premia may be forecast using three common variables (dividend yield, default spread, and term spread) that have previously been shown to possess forecast power for returns in equity and bon
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