The 27 references without contexts in paper Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian (2011) “Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil” / RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-16

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Alquist, R., Kilian, L., and R.J. Vigfusson (2011), “Forecasting the Price of Oil,” prepared for: G. Elliott and A. Timmermann (eds.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, 2, Amsterdam: North-Holland.
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Clements, M.P., and A.B. Galvão (2010), “Real-Time Forecasting of Inflation and Output Growth in the Presence of Data Revisions,” mimeo, Department of Economics, Queen Mary University of London.
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Faust, J., Rogers, J., and J.H. Wright (2003), “Exchange Rate Forecasting: The Errors We’ve Really Made,” Journal of International Economics, 60, 35-59.
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Giannone, D., Lenza, M. and G. Primiceri (2010), “Prior Selection for Vector Autoregressions,” mimeo, Department of Economics, Free University of Brussels.
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Koenig, E.F., Dolmas, S., and J. Piger (2003), “The Use and Abuse of Real-Time Data in Economic Forecasting,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 85, 618-628.
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Pesaran, M.H., and A. Timmermann (2009), “Testing Dependence Among Serially Correlated Multicategory Variables,” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 104, 325 337.
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Exhibit 1: Descriptive Statistics on Data Revisions
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(a) U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil Imports Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data In-report revision -2.90×10-3 0.733×10-3 Post-report revision 0 0 Number of observations 237 (1990.10–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to 1991.01–2005.07: t-3 2005.08–2010.12: t-2 Average number of revisions 1.21
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(b) World Crude Oil Production Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data In-report revision -0.86×10-3 0.976×10-3 Post-report revision -0.41×10-3 0.729×10-3
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Number of observations 237 (1990.10–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t-3
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Average number of revisions 8.59
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(c) U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data In-report revision -0.33×10-3 0.074×10-3 Post-report revision -0.02×10-3 0.019×10-3 Number of observations 235 (1990.12–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t-1 Average number of revisions 1.54
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(d) U.S. Petroleum Inventories Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data In-report revision 3.30×10-3 0.077×10-3 Post-report revision -0.01×10-3 0.002 ×10-3
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Number of observations 235 (1990.12–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t-1
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Average number of revisions 1.74
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(e) OECD Petroleum Inventories Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data In-report revision -0.77×10-3 0.048×10-3 Post-report revision -0.57×10-3 0.033×10-3 Number of observations 240 (1990.07–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t-6 Average number of revisions 7.60
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(f) U.S. CPI Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data In-report revision -0.35×10-3 0.044×10-3 Post-report revision 0 0
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Number of observations 235 (1990.12–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t-1
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Average number of revisions 0.66
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Libyan Production Shortfall + Contagion 1 Figure 3: Forecast Scenarios for Real Refiners’ Acquisition Cost Percent Deviations from Baseline Forecast
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Iraq at Full Capacity 20 0 -20 03691215182124 Libyan Production Shortfall 20 0 -20 03691215182124 Contagion 1 20 0 -20 03691215182124 Contagion 2 20 0 -20 03691215182124 20 0 -20 03691215182124
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NOTES: A description of each scenario can be found in section 5.
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Figure 4: Forecast Scenarios for Real Refiners’ Acquisition Cost Percent Deviations from Baseline Forecast
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Global Recovery 100 80 60 40 20 0 03691215182124 Nightm are 100
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Nightmare 1 Nightmare 2 80 60 40 20 0
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NOTES: The two nightmare scenarios combine the global recovery scenario with the Libyan production shortfall scenario and with the contagion 1 and contagion 2 scenarios, respectively.
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2010.12 dollars2010.12 dollars
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