The 2 linked references in paper Christiane Baumeister, Lutz Kilian (2011) “Real-Time Forecasts of the Real Price of Oil” / RePEc:bca:bocawp:11-16

  1. Kilian, L. (2008), “Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?” Review of Economics and Statistics, 90, 216-240.
  2. Kilian, L., and C. Vega (2011), “Do Energy Prices Respond to U.S. Macroeconomic News? A Test of the Hypothesis of Predetermined Energy Prices,” Review of Economics and Statistics, 93, 660-671.