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Exhibit 1: Descriptive Statistics on Data Revisions
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(a) U.S. Refiners’ Acquisition Cost of Crude Oil Imports Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data Inreport revision 2.90×103 0.733×103 Postreport revision 0 0 Number of observations 237 (1990.10–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to 1991.01–2005.07: t3 2005.08–2010.12: t2 Average number of revisions 1.21
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(b) World Crude Oil Production Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data Inreport revision 0.86×103 0.976×103 Postreport revision 0.41×103 0.729×103
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Number of observations 237 (1990.10–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t3
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Average number of revisions 8.59
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(c) U.S. Crude Oil Inventories Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data Inreport revision 0.33×103 0.074×103 Postreport revision 0.02×103 0.019×103 Number of observations 235 (1990.12–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t1 Average number of revisions 1.54
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(d) U.S. Petroleum Inventories Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data Inreport revision 3.30×103 0.077×103 Postreport revision 0.01×103 0.002 ×103
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Number of observations 235 (1990.12–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t1
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Average number of revisions 1.74
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(e) OECD Petroleum Inventories Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data Inreport revision 0.77×103 0.048×103 Postreport revision 0.57×103 0.033×103 Number of observations 240 (1990.07–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t6 Average number of revisions 7.60
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(f) U.S. CPI Mean Std. Dev. relative to expost data Inreport revision 0.35×103 0.044×103 Postreport revision 0 0
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Number of observations 235 (1990.12–2010.06) Vintage t reports observation up to t1
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Average number of revisions 0.66
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Libyan Production Shortfall + Contagion 1 Figure 3: Forecast Scenarios for Real Refiners’ Acquisition Cost Percent Deviations from Baseline Forecast
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Iraq at Full Capacity 20 0 20 03691215182124 Libyan Production Shortfall 20 0 20 03691215182124 Contagion 1 20 0 20 03691215182124 Contagion 2 20 0 20 03691215182124 20 0 20 03691215182124
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NOTES: A description of each scenario can be found in section 5.
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Figure 4: Forecast Scenarios for Real Refiners’ Acquisition Cost Percent Deviations from Baseline Forecast
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Global Recovery 100 80 60 40 20 0 03691215182124 Nightm are 100
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Nightmare 1 Nightmare 2 80 60 40 20 0
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NOTES: The two nightmare scenarios combine the global recovery scenario with the Libyan production shortfall scenario and with the contagion 1 and contagion 2 scenarios, respectively.
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2010.12 dollars2010.12 dollars
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